MENA e-commerce is on track for $50bn by 2027

The MENA e-commerce market reached $32bn in 2024 and is expected to approach $50bn by 2027. The wider Middle East and Africa market was valued at $155.16bn in 2025, growing from $176.68bn in 2026 toward $338.08bn by 2031 at 13.85% a year. The two sets of figures describe overlapping but different territories, which is the first thing to understand about regional e-commerce data. MENA and MEA are not the same market. Adding Africa roughly quintuples the total, and the growth drivers are entirely different — Gulf e-commerce growth comes from higher basket values and faster delivery; African growth comes from first-time online buyers and mobile money adoption. A figure quoted as Middle East e-commerce that turns out to include Nigeria and South Africa describes something else. Anyone using these numbers for planning should establish which footprint they cover before drawing a conclusion. What is genuinely driving Gulf growth is not new customers. Internet penetration in the GCC is close to universal and online shopping is already mainstream, so the region is not adding buyers at the rate emerging markets do. Growth comes from three other places. Basket expansion, as categories that resisted online purchase — groceries, pharmacy, furniture, cars — move to digital channels. Frequency, driven by delivery speeds that make online ordering competitive with a shop visit. And payments, as cash on delivery declines in favour of cards and digital wallets, which raises average order values and reduces failed deliveries. That last one connects the e-commerce story to the fintech one. The decline of cash on delivery is a fintech achievement that shows up as e-commerce growth. Egypt is the different case. It has the demographics the Gulf does not: over 100 million people, a young population, and historically low banking penetration alongside very high mobile penetration. Its e-commerce growth is therefore additive rather than substitutive — bringing new buyers online rather than moving existing buyers to bigger baskets. That is a higher growth ceiling and a lower average order value, and it is why Egypt's e-commerce and fintech sectors have grown together, with more than 177 fintechs now operating across 14-plus subsectors. The constraint in Egypt is not demand. It is capital, logistics infrastructure and a currency that makes cross-border sourcing expensive.