MENA's two funding trackers disagree by $350m

Two organisations counted Middle East and North Africa startup funding for the first half of 2026. MAGNiTT recorded $1.35bn across 214 deals, down 22% year on year. Wamda recorded $1.7bn across 242 rounds, down 18% from $2.1bn. The gap is $350m and 28 deals — roughly a quarter of the smaller figure. Both numbers circulate widely and both are quoted as though settled. None of this indicates error. It reflects methodology, and the choices are legitimate on either side. The first is what counts as funding. Debt facilities, Murabaha and other Shariah-compliant structures, grants, accelerator cheques and government programme money are treated differently by different trackers. In a region where a meaningful share of startup capital arrives as debt or as sovereign programme funding, that choice alone moves a total substantially. The second is what counts as MENA. Turkey and Pakistan are inside some definitions and outside others. A company founded in Cairo, incorporated in the DIFC and operating in Riyadh can be assigned to any of three countries. The third is what counts as disclosed: some trackers estimate undisclosed rounds and others exclude them. The fourth is when it counts — announcement date or close date produces different halves for the same transaction. These figures are used to make decisions. Founders benchmark valuations against them. Fund managers cite them raising from limited partners. Officials quote them from conference stages as evidence of ecosystem health. Using two sources interchangeably produces incoherent analysis. Pairing one tracker's total with another's deal count gives an average deal size that describes no real market. Comparing this year from one source against last year from another manufactures a trend out of methodology. The rule is simple and widely ignored: pick a tracker, stay with it, and name it whenever you quote it. What both agree on is direction. Both recorded a decline, and both recorded deal count falling faster than capital — MAGNiTT at 41% against 22%, Wamda at 28% against 18%. That agreement is the finding that survives methodology. Fewer companies are raising, and the ones that do are raising more. Whichever total you prefer, the market is thinning at the base while holding at the top — and that shape matters considerably more than whether the headline is $1.35bn or $1.7bn.